The world in 2024 stood at a crossroads, with international fault strains deepening and crises multiplying. Wars in Europe and the Center East upended the worldwide order, disrupting vitality markets and meals safety, whereas cascading challenges rippled by way of each area. The Indo-Pacific remained a theatre of competition, with China’s aggressive manoeuvres destabilising the South China Sea and its borders with India. In Europe, the battle in Ukraine continued to pressure international vitality provides and exacerbated inflation. The Center East witnessed escalating tensions with the Israel-Hamas battle, which drew in worldwide actors and deepened divides throughout the area. In the meantime, Myanmar’s inner strife and Bangladesh’s political unrest threatened regional equilibrium, highlighting the fragility of South Asia’s neighbourhood. These crises coupled with the persistent menace of local weather change and rising inequality underscored the interconnectedness of worldwide challenges and the pressing want for coordinated responses.
On this fraught setting, India’s overseas coverage demonstrated outstanding readability and resilience. Balancing strategic autonomy with international engagement, India ensured its pursuits have been safeguarded even because it contributed to stability past its borders. Its financial methods, resembling diversifying vitality imports and fostering renewable vitality partnerships, underscored a practical strategy to securing vitality independence amidst international volatility.
Trump’s Return
Main elections in 2024 added layers of geopolitical uncertainty. The return of Donald Trump as US President introduced shifts in Washington’s overseas coverage priorities. A robust Trump presidency represents each alternatives and challenges for India. Whereas his acknowledged focus is on ending the 2 main conflicts, countering China and deepening ties with like-minded democracies aligns with India’s objectives, potential shifts in commerce insurance policies and his transactional strategy to alliances might require India to navigate complexities with warning and tact. Moreover, Trump’s stricter immigration insurance policies, resembling modifications to H-1B visa rules and family-based immigration programmes, might considerably influence Indian professionals and the diaspora. Nonetheless, the bipartisan consensus on strengthening India-US relations stays intact and because the world’s two largest democracies, the partnership continues to evolve as a cornerstone of stability in an more and more polarised world. India’s diplomatic agility will likely be important in navigating these dynamics.
India’s outstanding legacy within the G20 underneath its Presidency is being carried ahead by the successive presidencies of Brazil and South Africa. The continuation of India’s insurance policies rooted in human-centric globalisation and dealing for the worldwide frequent good have enhanced its overseas coverage imprint on the worldwide stage. The idea of Vishwa Mitra (Pal to the World) displays India’s dedication to collaboration for international well-being and sustainable growth. From its management within the G20 to its vaccine diplomacy, its advocacy for equitable entry to digital public items to its position as a primary responder in instances of want, India exemplifies the ideas of inclusivity and shared progress.
Underneath PM Modi’s management, India has positioned itself as a associate for addressing international challenges, fostering mutual respect and advancing a imaginative and prescient of a peaceable and equitable world order. His dedication to reaching peace by way of diplomacy and dialogue was borne out by his visits to Russia and Ukraine on this endeavour.
Enhancing Defence
On the identical time, the worldwide conflicts of 2024 underscored the pressing want for sturdy defence capabilities. With international navy spending at unprecedented ranges, India’s defence price range of $81 billion alerts its dedication to nationwide safety. Amid rising tensions, India’s concentrate on self-reliance, in crucial sectors like defence manufacturing and rising applied sciences, demonstrates its skill to innovate whereas assembly strategic wants.
Regionally, India has needed to cope with unprecedented challenges arising out of financial turmoil and nice energy rivalry in our fast area. In Sri Lanka and the Maldives, it prolonged monetary and technical assist to stabilise economies, whereas calibrated diplomacy ensured continued engagement with Bangladesh. To safeguard its core pursuits in Bangladesh amidst its political unrest, India wants extra proactive engagement with all stakeholders within the nation. The Israel-Hamas battle additional examined India’s diplomatic stability because it safeguarded its diaspora, supplied humanitarian help and known as for peaceable resolutions.
Strategic Autonomy Is Key
As 2025 approaches, India should proceed leveraging its strengths whereas addressing rising challenges. India’s coverage of pragmatic strategic autonomy will likely be essential in navigating multilateral platforms and addressing the complexities of rising geopolitics. Considerably upping our strategic ties with the US is a chance afforded by Trump’s unprecedented win. Participating with trusted companions and people not so trusted, alike, is critical if we’re to safe our bigger pursuits.
Geopolitically, tactfully managing China’s assertiveness and guaranteeing regional stability will demand sustained engagement with Quad companions and in multilateral boards like BRICS and the SCO. Any rapprochement with China would should be calibrated on peace and tranquillity within the border areas.
India’s overseas coverage may also must proceed to observe its ‘neighbourhood first’ strategy. Managing relations with our fast neighbours is not going to solely safe our very important nationwide pursuits however enable us to cope with our main interlocutors extra successfully. Extending PM Modi’s most imaginative and prescient of ‘sabka saath, sabka vikas‘ in our fast neighbourhood will guarantee ‘sabka vishwas’.
On the worldwide stage, India can additional leverage its G20 legacy to champion the issues of the World South, notably in debt aid and local weather financing. India should proceed its assist for Africa and nations within the growing world, together with by extending crucial help in areas resembling infrastructure growth, healthcare and renewable vitality. Increasing digital public infrastructure as a worldwide public good is not going to solely elevate India’s technological management but in addition foster inclusivity. Vitality safety will likely be crucial in 2025, and India should proceed to diversify its vitality sources and speed up its clear vitality transition.
(Harsh Vardhan Shringla is a former International Secretary of India and Ambassador to USA, Bangladesh and Thailand.)
Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the writer